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Best Case & Worst Case Scenarios for GTA Real Estate

June 9, 2021 | Market Reports

At this point in 2021, GTA residents are used to sky high prices and multiple offers abound.

However the best case & worst case scenarios for GTA real estate have never been so far apart.  So much so in fact, that big banks cannot make up their mind!

Let’s compare 2 of Canada’s major banks’, Bank of Montreal & Scotiabank‘s risk forecasts to get the low down on the latest.

Get ready! What a forecast they are!

To make things crystal clear – the base is what banks believe will likely happen.  The best is what they believe to be the most incredible of happenings and the worst, well, is doomsday.

BMO is pessimistic on it's worst case scenario.

Bank of Montreal’s Base, Best & Worst Case Scenarios

BASE – The Bank of Montreal is singing a positive tune, believing that we will likely see an increase in home prices of 17.4% in 2021, followed by a 5.1% increase in 2022.

BEST – Optimistically BMO believes the best case scenario is a 20.8% increase in 2021, followed by 10% increase in 2022.

WORST – Edited significantly and much more pessimistically from their last forecast, BMO now sees the worst case scenario as -12.3% in 2021, followed by a -18.7% drop in 2022.

Scotiabank worst case scenario is flat for the next 12 months.

Scotiabank’s Base, Best & Worst Case Scenarios

BASE – Scotiabank sings a similarly positive tune on what they believe reality will be, they see an increase in home prices of 7% over the last 12 month period.  An increase of 3.5% from what they thought in January.

BEST – Best case, Scotiabank is predicting a 9.2% increase in sales prices in the next 12 month period, up almost double from previously reported forecasts.

WORST – Here’s where they differ strongly however!  Scotiabank’s worst case scenario?  Prices remain FLAT!  That’s right, Scotia doesn’t see any dark clouds in the forecast. At worst it may just be a partially cloudy kind of market with a drop of only -.4% over the next 12 months.

Worst Case Scenarios for GTA Real Estate

So who’s right?

Well of course- fortune telling is not our profession.  However..

Based on both forecasts, we gather that they both may be.  The best case & worst case scenarios for GTA real estate look quite far apart from one another, but we feel that they are both forecasting stability on the rise at a Base level (unless a government issued incentive throws a wrench in it all of course!).

Home sales, showings and offers appeared to slow in May over the month prior, sales prices though remained the same.  Could this be the beginning a slower paced return to normal?

As GTA residents get vaccinated, storefronts open and life as used to know resumes, the frenzy of real estate that we’ve come to know could be pumping the brakes.  What we’d be left with perhaps is a strong, stable and balanced market that allows for buyers and sellers alike to get in on the action.

The newly set benchmark of prices however presents very obvious challenges to those not already in the real estate game.  But that is whole other blog post waiting to happen!

Until then, be sure to keep up to date with real estate news and tips via the Abode Realty Blog.



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